Month

June 2016

BrExit – View from Canada

Date: 2016-06-27 - Prepared by: The GISI
Federal Government Leadership: Canada has had two independence referendums, in 1980 and 1995. During the 1995 Quebec’s referendum the turnout was 94%, the “yes” side had 49.4%, the “no” had 50.6%, and 1.8% of votes were deemed invalid. Some asked...
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BrExit and Market Consequences

Date: 2016-06-24 - Prepared by: The GISI
Britain's voters made a courageous decision to leave the European Union, despite all the warnings from so many people of influence and power-President Obama, Paul Krugman, Jamie Dimon, Mark Carney, Britain's former Prime Ministers and many others. If British voters...
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GIS June 20 (The Corruption Premium)

Date: 2016-06-19 - Prepared by: The GISI
This week’s GIS publication discusses only three topics. First, why pension funds’ shift away from public markets into infrastructure investments will most likely be a failure. Second, we present a brief qualitative analysis of the Chinese economy and its banking...
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Special Report (US vs Canada Banks)

Date: 2016-06-14 - Prepared by: The GISI
Since January 2005, Canadian bank stocks have appreciated by nearly 300% whereas US bank stocks have, on average, declined by more than 10%. As of today, the average Price-to-Book ratio of Canadian bank stocks is at 1.7x versus 1.0x for...
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Most common Emerging Markets questions

Date: 2016-06-08 - Prepared by: The GISI
For the first time ever, most EM economies have floating currencies, which have acted as powerful economic shock absorbers since the 2008 crisis. This is a simple but important point. Unemployment rates no longer have to soar into double digits...
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GIS June 6 (Three Known Unknowns)

Date: 2016-06-05 - Prepared by: The GISI
Alan Greenspan has recently argued—just like he did in December 2015—that (a)it will be very difficult for the Fed to normalize rates without causing a turmoil in stocks; (b) long-term real bond yields are at unsustainably low levels, and should...
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GFIS June 5 (Real Bond Yields)

Date: - Prepared by: The GISI
“The Fed’s ability to affect real rates of return, especially longer-term real rates, is transitory and limited. Except in the short run, real interest rates are determined by a wide range of economic factors, including prospects for economic growth—not by...
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