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GIS December 5 (Clash of Ideologies)

Date: 2016-12-04 - Prepared by: The GISI
The 10-30 part of government bond yield curves is still not steepening, which means that the bond market is not worried about government deficits running out of control. Donald Trump’s economic ideology will be tested in 2017 and 2018. There...
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GIS November 21 (The New Paradigm)

Date: 2016-11-20 - Prepared by: The GISI
The “Trump Rally” got ignited as several republican billionaires, who were mostly in cash, called each other the early morning of November 9 and decided to simultaneously invest into US stocks. All the market makers and anti-Trump institutional asset managers...
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GIS November 7 (Compare the Two)

Date: 2016-11-06 - Prepared by: The GISI
It would be reasonably prudent to reduce our exposure to stocks today, just for one day. Paul Krugman recently argued that the big difference between BrExit and the US presidential elections is that Britain’s Remain campaign was weak and poorly...
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GIS October 24 (Expect More Stimulus)

Date: 2016-10-23 - Prepared by: The GISI
The only factor that can considerably push up interest rates―at this stage of the cycle―is much higher government spending. The only country that has so far delivered this increase in government spending is Canada. It is, therefore, important to observe...
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Brief Note on China

Date: 2016-10-13 - Prepared by: The GISI
Whenever we think, hear or read about China, it is important to keep one-often overlooked-statistic in mind. China’s M2 money currently stands at roughly US$ 22 trillion, or more than 200% of China’s GDP. America’s M2 money supply is at...
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GIS October 10 (Clarity of Thought)

Date: 2016-10-09 - Prepared by: The GISI
Please consider the following three-step analogy. Step one: from 2001 until 2007 most banks aggressively expanded into new countries and industries (and raised leverage). Instead, they should have carefully managed their impending decline. They understood their mistake in 2008, but...
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A Brief Note on Oil

Date: 2016-09-29 - Prepared by: The GISI
As argued in our previous Note on Oil Saudi Arabia and Iran are trying to better coordinate supply. Oil should soon trade above US$ 50.  Yesterday the US Senate & Congress voted to override President Obama's veto, and allow Americans to...
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GIS September 26 (The New Cliché)

Date: 2016-09-25 - Prepared by: The GISI
The two most important factors for any asset class—at this stage—are long-term interest rates and US elections. To discuss the future of interest rates, let’s look briefly at Japan. What happened in Japan last week was extraordinary and unprecedented. The...
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Special Report (Investing In Banks)

Date: 2016-09-14 - Prepared by: The GISI
For this Special Report we have chosen 60 banks from around the world. Each bank is systemically important in its home country. We have estimated the fair value of these banks' Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio. According to our model, Commerzbank AG...
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GIS September 12 (The Weakest Link)

Date: 2016-09-11 - Prepared by: The GISI
It is a big mistake to ignore the G-20 communiqué issued last week. Many market commentators and researchers don’t read anything longer than a few pages. Instead they briefly look at summaries provided by journalists and rush to conclusions.  For...
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