PRODUCTS

BrExit and Market Consequences

Date: 2016-06-24 - Prepared by: The GISI
Britain's voters made a courageous decision to leave the European Union, despite all the warnings from so many people of influence and power-President Obama, Paul Krugman, Jamie Dimon, Mark Carney, Britain's former Prime Ministers and many others. If British voters...
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GIS June 20 (The Corruption Premium)

Date: 2016-06-19 - Prepared by: The GISI
This week’s GIS publication discusses only three topics. First, why pension funds’ shift away from public markets into infrastructure investments will most likely be a failure. Second, we present a brief qualitative analysis of the Chinese economy and its banking...
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Special Report (US vs Canada Banks)

Date: 2016-06-14 - Prepared by: The GISI
Since January 2005, Canadian bank stocks have appreciated by nearly 300% whereas US bank stocks have, on average, declined by more than 10%. As of today, the average Price-to-Book ratio of Canadian bank stocks is at 1.7x versus 1.0x for...
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Most common Emerging Markets questions

Date: 2016-06-08 - Prepared by: The GISI
For the first time ever, most EM economies have floating currencies, which have acted as powerful economic shock absorbers since the 2008 crisis. This is a simple but important point. Unemployment rates no longer have to soar into double digits...
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GIS June 6 (Three Known Unknowns)

Date: 2016-06-05 - Prepared by: The GISI
Alan Greenspan has recently argued—just like he did in December 2015—that (a)it will be very difficult for the Fed to normalize rates without causing a turmoil in stocks; (b) long-term real bond yields are at unsustainably low levels, and should...
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GFIS June 5 (Real Bond Yields)

Date: - Prepared by: The GISI
“The Fed’s ability to affect real rates of return, especially longer-term real rates, is transitory and limited. Except in the short run, real interest rates are determined by a wide range of economic factors, including prospects for economic growth—not by...
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GIS May 23 (Disinflationary Growth)

Date: 2016-05-22 - Prepared by: The GISI
Between early May and September 2013, U.S. and U.K. 10-Y government bond yields nearly doubled, from around 1.6% to 3%. German 10-Y Bund yields spiked from 1.2% to 2.0%. The entire increase was driven by real yields, as inflation expectations...
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Special Report on Global Banks

Date: 2016-05-15 - Prepared by: The GISI
In this report we estimate the fair-value of the Price-to-Book ratio of 61 banks from around the world. We have constructed a non-linear model, based on four explanatory variables: the RoE, the Beta coefficient of each stock, the dividend payout ratio...
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GIS May 9 (The Fog of Noise)

Date: 2016-05-08 - Prepared by: The GISI
The currently low-level of real long-term interest rates should last much longer than most believe, which will eventually bring down equity risk premiums and push up valuations. The world economy continues to adjust to lower energy prices. Whether oil price...
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Geopolitics Brief Update

Date: 2016-04-28 - Prepared by: The GISI
In this email I'd like to draw your attention to a recently published study, in The American Economic Review, by two professors from Princeton (one of them — Alan Blinder — previously served as the Vice-Chairman of the Fed). This extensive study...
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